Airlines will have to lower their prices until 2022
Due to the pandemic due to the new coronavirus, travel demand will not return to normal until at least mid-2021, in the best case scenario according to Stifel analysts.
Flight demand will continue to decline for a long period of time, due to quarantine restrictions and the resurgence of COVID-19 as it switches to fall. Analyst Joseph DeNardi wrote in April that demand could return in mid-2021 with optimism.
However, based on the spread of the virus, DeNardi wrote that a steady decline in demand, coupled with quarantine orders and prohibitions or warnings on domestic travel, could still lead to a cessation of flights for up to three months during profitable seasons. . "While the weather is difficult to predict, we believe it is quite likely that airlines will suspend scheduled flights in the near future," the report says.
Major airlines, including companies like British Airways and the German airline Lufthansa, have made it clear that this is now a challenge to their survival. The rapid escalation of the crisis, with large centers like Madrid now following Rome as it is declared outside the limits of non-essential travel, makes it impossible to predict whether it is a pause, or whether the measures announced as temporary could last much longer.
China's airlines are stricter now than during the height of their own outbreak, to limit reinfection from abroad, and national public health authorities and governments will dictate the procedures. Traveler evaluation might be necessary: passenger temperatures were taken after the Sars crisis and a comparable coronavirus test, if one is widely available, could restore confidence. Emirates announced that it had tested a rapid blood test, where the results are available in 10 minutes, for all passengers on a flight from Dubai to Tunisia this week.
Aviation optimists speak of pent-up vacation demand; Others wonder how many passengers will want to risk a vacation abroad. Many of the last European leisure trips were to ski resorts that demonstrated such as cruises, major incubators, and Covid-19 exporters. The depth of the accompanying economic recession will also be a factor. Airline analyst John Strickland of JLS Consulting says: "Even if they have the money to fly, I think people will be apprehensive. Normal summer markets like Spain and Italy, even if they wanted to receive people commercially, might not receive visitors. now".
Joseph DeNardi says "The demand for air travel has historically been incredibly robust through outbreaks, terrorist attacks, war, aircraft accidents," "and we see no reason why this will not be the case once this outbreak stabilizes and better understood".